Showing posts with label EQUITY. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EQUITY. Show all posts

NSE NIFTY

Free Investment Zone

NIFTY 2007 - NIFTY 2015


Now some amazing facts !!
  • Out of the Top 20 stocks in 2007 only 10 remain in 2015 in the Top 20 weights.
  • Out of top 20 in 2007 there are 4 stocks which are not part of Nifty. ( RPL got merged in RIL ). This constituted 11.67% of Nifty.
  • Out of the Top 10 weights in Nifty only 3 remain in Top 10 of 2015. These 3 constitutred 20.03% of Nifty and are now only constituting 14.95% of Nifty.
  • The top 4 weights of 2015 Infosys/ hdfc bank / hdfc / itc now command a weight of 28.85% but used to command only a weight of 9.95% in 2007 !! -------------- ( WOW )
  • Reliance Industries and Reliance Petroleum i.e RIL an RPL had a combined weight of 14.56% and now its only Reliance with a weight of 5.91%  ------------------ ( WOW)
  • Rcom was the 7th largest weightage in Nifty is no more part of it. Even Unitech was at the 16th place.
  • ONGC the 2nd largest weightage on Nifty is now at the 21st place. From 7.13% to 1.56%.

    Sectoral Changes
    • The big sectoral shift has been from Oil and Gas to Banking. Oil and Gas was at 24.46% in 2007 and is now 9.14% and Banks were 11.46% are now 23.94%.
    • Telcom was a darling in 2007 with a weightage of 11.26% and now closer to 2.1%.
    • IT was at 7.2% in 2007 is now at 15.02%
    • Metals and PSU banks weightages have reduced by half.
    • The big shift is Nifty was an index which in 2007 had majority of the index tilted towards investment linked sectors such as Oil * Gas, Telecom, Power, Industrials. This has now shifted towards sectors which are Banks, Financials, export oriented - IT and Pharma
    • Such a shift is a major reason for polarization in sectoral/stock performance and Nifty.So we have a bunch of stocks down 50-70% but Nifty is up 20% since 2007.

The Folly of Short Term Predictions by Udayan

If there’s one thing which I’ve learnt, and perhaps the only thing, is that these things which are said by investment experts, where the Nifty will be 12 months down the line, where the stock price will be four quarters or 8 quarters, is complete and absolute bunkum. You know, there is no way in the world you can predict these things.…

The one things which I regret, in my career as a business or television commentator, is that we’ve played our part in leading people to a very short-termist, predictive kind of a mindset, for equity markets. That is not the asset class. I think we’ve played our part in telling people that listen to the chartists, because they’ll be able to tell you where the market will be tomorrow or next week. Listen to analysts who can predict where markets will be in three quarters time. And I think that’s a mistake. If I could do it differently, in hindsight, I would do it differently.

Because that is not how smart investors behave. They never tell you that my investment in this stock is predicated on my Nifty target of 9500 in 2016. If they did that, they would never make money. But amateur investors make the mistake of doing that; which is why they don’t end up making a lot of money, unfortunately.

                                               The full video is here:
Some of this is true. I have often spoken of my distaste for predictions, even of my own. Because predictions are about a binary thing – either you get it right or you don’t. But profit is a different thing – you can make lots of little profits (you’re right many times!) and one large loss (you’re wrong once!) – which means you have a great record as a predictor but a horrible record as an investor.

But I don’t share his distaste for the short term. We have seen an incredible bull run in the last fifteen years, and a big bear market with a V shaped recovery. We would be ignorant if we didn’t know that the highs of 2007 – when the Sensex was at 21,000 – is still way higher in rupee terms than the 28,000 levels today, because if you factor in 8% inflation, that value was way higher today. We have, in effect, seen inflation lifting stocks, which is why ooh, the long term looks so good.

It’s not so great when you don’t have that inflation supporting you. When you can’t just buy any stock and it will go up. When you have that level of inflation supporting stocks, you can be the “oh I will buy for the long term” and forget about your purchases after you buy. It’s a different story now, when even stories that made great sense in the longer term are no longer so.

The focus on the short term is also about our lack of safety nets. People want to see money fast, because they don’t trust that they will see it later. But there’s a deeper, richer story.  It’s the power of the shorter term trader that makes it useful for a longer term investor to work the markets. If there were only long term investors you wouldn’t have a market. If that is true, then it’s as important to cultivate the short term trader as much as it is to help long term investors.

Having said that, the approach of asking for five stocks every hour of a technical analyst will result in, for the most part, junk. The technical analysts know it too, and they also know that you could look at any chart and come up with a bullish or bearish stance in 15 seconds, and it will sound intelligent. The channels love it, and the viewers love it, and the long term investors don’t even bother to watch TV because they’d rather read balance sheets. For the channel, it would be sinful to ignore the short term investor, but it is true, in my opinion, that they could have done a lot more to educate people on the insane risks of mad-bullish or panic-bearish behaviour.

Or, that the short term trader should focus on probabilities, not outcomes. That there’s a point about diversifying short term bets too. That a risk management framework – from sizing positions to setting up stop losses – is essential. That you need a trading log – which most channels do not maintain of their own analysts. (Btw, having been on TV, I know my prediction record isn’t good either. But all our trades, at Capital Mind, have a log, and our results have been good.) Or that you simply need to take it on the chin and accept that either a) you don’t know or b) you’re just wrong – every once in a while.

We have a new breed of long term investors on twitter who will shout out their stocks saying “5% up today” every time a stock moves. And when it falls, they are a long term investor. This is because people are thirsty for the winners, even if it didn’t matter that the investment was just 1% of the person’s portfolio and if it doubled, it would mean a 1% return for him. We are built for focused joys, not lasting happiness. We love the adrenalin of a 5% move, but a 0.5% move on 20 continuous days doesn’t make us salivate. That is why we love reality shows, soap operas, and gambling – because something’s happening or being made to happen all the time.

TV is, really, a reflection of ourselves. Udayan walked away from it all and can probably say all that he wants with a straight face, but the reality is that he loved the short term guy when he was out there, and they loved him back. He’s now like the rich old bald man who tells the struggling young career guy that money shouldn’t be the only thing in life. Right, after you made enough of it.

You dont get an award for dying, & that’s pretty much all that's guaranteed in the long term.
Oh & btw, my prediction for the Nifty for 2016 is – it will move between various numbers.

Reason for Sensex crashing to 13 month low

The BSE Sensex  and Nifty are trading near 13 months low and have declined 17% from the 2015 High which we saw on 04 March 2015.  In Just 6 months Stock market have wiped out the gains made in past 13 months.Let me put the reason from both Technical and Fundamental Perceptive Sensex corrected by 500 points Nifty almost 200 Points making today as Black Friday.

Fundamental

  • Concerns over Fed rate hike
Equity Market likes liquidity, Friday Strong US jobs data and Unemployment rate coming sub 6%  fueled expectations that the US Federal Reserve may raise interest rates sooner than previously thought.
Hike Rate means sucking liquidity out of system and this will flight to safe assets in Bonds and stronger currency like USD and money getting sucked out of Emerging market. India Markets have received $11Billion in 2015 till date and up 8% till date so profit booking can be done by FII’s.

  • Expensive valuations of Stock Market
 Valuation for Indian markets at 19.4x on FY15E (16.6x on a rolling one year forward) and 22.5x on CAPE basis which are above long-term averages.
Sensex is trading at more than 20 times FY15 and 17 to 18 times FY16 earnings, ALSO PE (Price to Earning Ratio) as discussed was touching 24 before correction has started and still trading around 21 so valuation are still not reasonable.

  • No Pick up in Earnings growth
It will take at least two quarters for the easy monetary policy benefits to trickle down and pick-up in earnings growth is likely to be the next big trigger for markets. The third quarter results were quite disappointing worst quarter result in almost 5 years.

Dollar gaining strength

The dollar index is gaining strength against basket of currencies including rupee. Yesterday Mario Darghi has also said to increase QE which will further weaken Euro and Dollar will rise is due course.

  • Slowdown caused by China and Yuan Devaluation
Global stock markets are tumbling after a survey showed Chinese factory activity contracted at their fastest pace since the depth of the global financial crisis in 2009. Fears of a China-led global economic slowdown drove Wall Street, previously seen as a safe-haven, to its steepest one-day drop in nearly four years on Friday.

  • Rupee at lowest since September 2013
Rupee slumped to as low as 66.48 per dollar on Monday morning. It is lowest since September 2013, as Asian markets reeled under fears of a China-led global economic slowdown.

Technical

  • Trading below 200 DMA/8k Level : Nifty/ Sensex  are trading well below its 200 DMA, putting pressure on market, as many FII’s have 200 DMA benchmark for buying or selling.Break of sacrosanct level of 8k and closing below it for 2 week is sign of weakness.
  • Gann Date Effect- As discussed in Weekly Analysis Gann/Appoint and Gunner plays an important role in finding impulsive move, all studies were pointing towards a big move.
  •  NF opening volume in first 15 mins was 25 Lakh highest seen in past 2 years suggesting serious long liquidation by smart money.

TATA MOTOR DVR > < TATA STEEL

THOSE WHO CAN'T AFFORD 300 BUCKS FOR TATA MOTORS CAN INVEST IN
TATA MOTOR DVR AROUND 200-210 LEVELS FOR LONG TERM

VOTING RIGHT DIFFERENCE + 5% HIGHER DIVIDEND TRADING @ 34% DISCOUNT  


What is a DVR share?

DVR stands for Differential Voting Right. Companies issue DVR shares to prevent any hostile takeover and dilution of voting rights. This also helps strategic investors who are looking at a big investment in a company, but with fewer voting rights. A Tata Motor DVR has 10 per cent voting right as compared to an ordinary Tata Motor share.

Why should retail investors invest in DVRs?

DVRs are suitable for retail investors who are not concerned with voting rights as they don't intend to affect the decision making of the management. The same company's shares are available at a lesser price for the same fundamentals. Besides, Tata Motors DVR fetches 5 per cent higher dividends as compared to ordinary shares of Tata Motors.

What are the disadvantages?

DVR shares are usually thinly traded. Also, during bearish phase, the discount over Tata Motors shares could widen and this could be a dampening factor.



Do Not Panic. Its all going to settle down ^_^


25 Lac Volume in first 5-Minutes. "Extremely Rare



 Nifty Futures lost 6.08% nearly 504 points. Index Futures recorded a turnover of 48,637 crore.





All red over the heatmap. Top loosers from Nifty 50 pack are VEDANTA, GAIL, TATA STEEL, CAIRN crashed more than 13%. And Nearly 31 stocks out of 50 crashed more than 5%.


Sector Heatmap
All sector ends in red. Top loosers are from Airlines, Gems & Jewellery,
Hospitality, Tyres, Real Estate, Paper & Shipping sectors

Last 35 years Inflation, Gold, FD, Sensex, PPF & LIC Bonus

RELIANCE

Stocks trading below their 2008 / early 2009 lows in NSE

   SPICY STOCKS

POWER OF PHARMA - - - WEALTH CREATION (2008-2015)

LARGE CAP Pharma Cos

1. DR REDDY – Rs 387 in 2008 to now CMP – 3547.90.
So investment of Rs 10,000 in 2008 would be today – Rs 91,677 !! ( More than 9 times in 7 years !! )

2. SUN PHARMA – Rs 890 in 2008 to now – Rs 972.95. Meanwhile, stock split from FV 5 to 1 & bonus of 1:1 in 2013; So, if u bought 1 share at Rs 890 in 2008, u would have 10 shares at Rs 972.95 today.
So investment of Rs 10,000 in 2008 would be today – Rs 1,09,320 !! ( Almost 11 times in 7 yrs!!)

3. LUPIN – Rs 430 in 2008 to now CMP – Rs 1833.25. Meanwhile, stock split from FV 10 to 2 in 2010; So, if you bought 1 share at 430 in 2008, you would have 5 shares at 1833.25 today.
So investment of Rs 10,000 in 2008 would be today – Rs 2,13,168 !! ( More than 21 times in 7 years !! )

WHAT ABOUT SMALL / MIDCAPs ?

1. TORRENT PHARMA – Rs 112 in 2008 was a 950 CR market cap Co to now CMP – 1208.70 today. So if u bought 1 share at Rs 112 in 2008, u would have 2 shares (bonus 1:1 in 2013) at Rs 1208 today
So investment of Rs 10,000 in 2008 would be today – Rs 2,15,550 !! ( More than 21 times in 7 years !! )

2. GRANULES INDIA – Rs 28 in 2008, was just a 57 CR M cap Co to now 83.80 today. So if you bought 1 share at Rs 28 in 2008, you would have 10 shares (split from FV 10 to 1 in 2015) at Rs 83.80 today.
So investment of Rs 10,000 in 2008 would be today – Rs 2,97,163 !! ( Almost 30 times in 7 years !! )

3. NATCO PHARMA – At Rs 38 in 2008, NATCO PHARMA was just a Rs 128 CR market cap Co !! to now CMP – 2213.70 today. No stock split or bonus meanwhile.
So investment of Rs 10,000 in 2008 would be today – Rs 5,82,552 !! ( More than 58 times in 7 years !! )

4. AUROBINDO PHARMA – At Rs 101 in 2008 was a Rs 588 Cr Co to now 1374 today. The Stock split from FV 5 to 1 in 2011. So, if u bought 1 share at Rs 101 in 2008, u would have 5 shares at Rs 1374 today
So investment of Rs 10,000 in 2008 would be today – Rs 6,76,648 !! ( More than 67 times in 7 years !! )

5. AJANTA PHARMA – At Rs 48 in 2008 was just a 57 CR Mcap to now1579. Meanwhile stock split from FV 10 to 2 & a bonus of 1:2. So if u bot 1 share at Rs 48 in 2008, u would hv 7.5 shares at 1579 today.
So investment of Rs 10k in 2008 would be today – Rs 24,42,757 !! ( More than 240 times in 7 years !!! )

INFOSYS * TATA MOTORS

Wealth Destroyers 2008 - 2015

NSE’s NV20 index to go live from Monday (containing top 20 compani

Zero Debt companies - CNX 500

1 ACC
15 Castrol India
29 Exide Inds.
2 Akzo Nobel
16 Clariant Chemica
30 Fag Bearings
3 ALSTOM India
17 Coal India
31 FDC
4 Astrazeneca Phar
18 Colgate-Palm.
32 Future Consumer
5 Bajaj Corp
19 Container Corpn.
33 G M D C
6 Bajaj Finserv
20 Credit Analysis
34 Geometric
7 Bajaj Holdings
21 CRISIL
35 Gillette India
8 Balmer Lawrie
22 Cummins India
36 Glaxosmit Pharma
9 Bata India
23 Cyient
37 GlaxoSmith C H L
10 Bharat Electron
24 eClerx Services
38 Greaves Cotton
11 Bharti Infra.
25 Eicher Motors
39 Hexaware Tech.
12 Blue Dart Exp.
26 Engineers India
40 Hind. Unilever
13 Britannia Inds.
27 Ent.Network
41 Hind.Copper
14 Cairn India
28 Esab India
42 Hind.Zinc

Sectoral Performance


Equity Investments

NIFTY & SENSEX

 Monthly Nifty with Andrews pitchfork tool, Lower line support at 6900-7000 areas

NSE NIFTY

United States (Rank 1)
Market cap: $23.8 trillion
Percentage of world m-cap: 37%
Change (year to date): 6.8%

Japan (Rank 2)
Market cap: $4.5 trillion
Percentage of world m-cap: 7%
Change (year to date): -2.4%

China (Rank 3)
Market cap: $4.2 trillion
Percentage of world m-cap: 6.5%
Change (year to date): 24.1%

Hong Kong (Rank 4)
Market cap: $3.8 trillion
Percentage of world m-cap: 5.9%
Change (year to date): 6.8%

United Kingdom (Rank 5)
Market cap: $3.7 trillion
Percentage of world m-cap: 5.8%
Change (year to date): - 7.3%

Canada (Rank 6)
Market cap: $2.1 trillion
Percentage of world m-cap: 3.3%
Change (year to date): 0

France (Rank 7)
Market cap: $2 trillion
Percentage of world m-cap: 3%
Change (year to date): -8.5%

Germany (Rank 8)
Market cap: $1.8 trillion
Percentage of world m-cap: $2.8
Change (year to date): -11.2%

India (Rank 9)
Market cap: $1.6 trillion
Percentage of world m-cap: 2.5%
Change (year to date): 38.9%

Switzerland (Rank: 10)
Market cap: $1.5 trillion
Percentage of world m-cap: 2.4%
Change (year to date): 0.1%

NIFTY PERFORMANCE

 From last 14 Years Nifty giving avg 3% Return from Nov Expiry to Next five Days
Can  we expect same This Year 8650-8700 in Next Five days ???
Rules - Go long the day before Modi leaves for a holiday and exit on Modi's arrival back to India,
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