MAJOR EVENT & BUDGET EXPECTATION

This week Union Budget for 2014-15 is a major event. The week also marks the beginning of the Q1 June 2014 corporate earnings season. The Budget session of the Parliament will start on Monday, 7 July 2014.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will present the final Union Budget for 2014-15 in Lok Sabha at 11:00 IST on Thursday, 10 July 2014. A day before that i.e. on Wednesday, 9 July 2014, the Finance Ministry will table Economic Survey for 2013-14.

Railway Minister Sadananda Gowda will present the final Railway Budget for 2014-15 in Lok Sabha on Tuesday, 8 July 2014. Investors will continue to watch the progress of the monsoon rains amid concerns that poor rains this year will send food prices higher.

Expectations that the finance minster will announce measures in the Budget aimed at bolstering economic growth may keep stock prices firm ahead of the Budget announcement on 10 July 2014. The finance minister will have to do a balancing act of containing fiscal deficit, controlling inflation and also promoting growth.

Shares of public sector undertakings (PSUs) will be in focus amid expectations that the government will raise the target on proceeds from PSU divestment in the final Union Budget for 2014-15 to boost the government's non-tax revenue.

Shares of infrastructure developers and cement companies will be in focus on expectations of higher allocations for power, roads, ports, rivers, railways etc. in the final Union Budget 2014-15 to be unveiled on 10 July 2014. The Finance Minister is likely to provide a thrust on time bound implementation of various infrastructure projects.

With respect to the real estate sector, there are expectations that the government will take steps towards providing the long awaited industry status to the real estate sector and provide boost to low cost housing in the Budget. Industry status will help easier access to bank lending for real estate developers. There are also expectations that the tax benefit with respect to interest payment on housing loans will be raised. At present, a maximum deduction of Rs 1.5 lakh is allowed on taxable income towards interest on housing loan.

Shares of jewellery retailers will be in focus as some moderation in gold import duty is expected in the Budget. The All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation (GJF) in its wish list for the upcoming Budget, has asked the Finance Minister to abolish 80:20 rule for gold import and cut in import duty on gold to 2% from 10%.

ITC will be in focus on speculation the government will increase excise duty on cigarettes in the Budget including on cigarettes of stick size of less than 65 mm in length which currently enjoys lower excise duty.

First quarter corporate earnings season begins next week. Private sector bank IndusInd Bank will unveil Q1 results on Wednesday, 9 July 2014. IT major Infosys is scheduled to announced Q1 results on Friday, 11 July 2014.

The government will unveil industrial production data for May 2014 on Friday, 11 July 2014.

BUDGET EXPECTATIONS


1. TABACCO PRODUCTS VAT WILL BE HIKED BY 50%

2. HI TECH RAILWAY STATIONS & 3 BULLET TRAINS

3. CHEMICAL WILL BE FOCUS

4. FERTILEZER PRICE WILL NOT CHANGE

5. IRRIGATION FACILITY LIKE GUJARAT REPLICATED ON ALL OVER INDIA

6. NEW HIGHWAYS MADE FROM CEMENT

7. MTNL & BSNL MERGER OR MTNL WILL GET GOOD PACKAGE FOR REVIVAL

8. TAX EXCEPTION LIMIT WILL GO UP

9. ROAD & POWER SECTOR ON FOCUS

10. DEFENCE FDI EXPECTED

11. GUIDLINE FOR SMALL PSU RECAPITALISATION

12. INSURANCE FDI WILL GET HIKED

13. SUPER RICH TAX DIMINISHED

14. HOME LOAN EMI INTEREST WAIVER LIMIT WILL BE HIKED

15. PFC...REC...NHPC...SAIL...MMTC...COAL INDIA...MANY MORE DIS INVESTMENT EXPECTED OF TOTAL AMT. OF 87000 CRORE

16. IN RAILWAY PPT MODEL WILL BE IMPLIMANTED